Methodology / Trend

Trend: where price has already been

Trend describes the shape of a ticker's own recent price history — how much it has moved over a multi-month lookback, and how close it currently sits to the top of its own 52-week range. Both are descriptions of price that has already happened.

One of the six factors in the Tapeline composite. Counts for more than any other factor in the composite. Tapeline publishes the ordering of the factor weights, not the numeric weights or the scoring equation.

What it measures

Observable quantities, nothing else

• ·The ticker's price change over a multi-month lookback window.
• ·Where the latest price sits inside the ticker's own 52-week high-to-low range.

How the reading is derived

The same procedure on every ticker

1. 01Each measurement is mapped onto a common 0–100 range using a fixed scale that is the same for every ticker. There is no per-name override and no discretionary adjustment.
2. 02Where both measurements are available they are averaged. Where only one is available, that one is used on its own.
3. 03The scale is absolute, not a ranking: a Trend reading is not a ticker's position against other tickers on that tick, it is that ticker's own measurement placed on a fixed scale.
4. 04Readings are clamped to the 0–100 range, so a move past the end of the scale saturates rather than extending.

Tapeline deliberately does not publish the numeric weights, the scoring equation, or the exact band edges used to map a measurement onto the 0–100 scale. What is published is the factor set, the weight ordering, each factor’s contribution on every ticker, and the record of every daily top-10.

What feeds it

Data behind this factor

Every category, its refresh cadence and where it appears in the product is listed on data sources.

Known limitations

Where this factor is weak

Every one of these is a property of the method, not a bug waiting to be fixed. They are listed here so a reader can decide how much weight to give the reading.

• —Because the scale is fixed and clamped, two tickers with very different moves can both sit at the top of the range. Past the end of the scale the reading stops distinguishing between them.
• —Recently listed tickers have too little history for the 52-week component. The reading is computed from what exists and the per-ticker confidence percentage drops to reflect that.
• —Corporate actions — splits, spin-offs, large special dividends — distort a raw price series until the adjustment propagates through the feed.
• —In a range-bound market the reading drifts without a persistent move behind it. A changing Trend reading is not the same as a changing situation.
• —A high Trend reading carries no information about valuation, solvency, or what the company does.

Limits that apply to the whole product, rather than to this factor, are on limitations.

Common questions

Trend FAQ

The other five

Each factor has its own page

Back to the full methodology overview, or read why Tapeline publishes its losing days.